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This is chapter three, part six, of Karl Popper's
Conjectures and Refutations (ISBN 13:978-0-415-29594-0). It forms part of my research and I transcribe it here under the
doctrine of fair use [copyright.gov].
Read
Part One.
Part TwoPart ThreePart FourPart Five"6. The Third View: Conjectures, Truth and Reality
Neither Bacon nor Berkeley believed that the earth rotates, but nowadays everybody believes it, including the physicists. Instrumentalism is embraced by Bohr and Heisenberg only as a way out of the special difficulties which have arisen in quantum theory.
The motive is hardly sufficient. It is always difficult to interpret the latest theories, and they sometimes perplex their own creators, as happened with Newton. Maxwell at first inclined towards an essentialist interpretation of his theory: a theory which ultimately contributed more than any other to the decline of essentialism. And Einstein inclined at first to an instrumental interpretation of relativity, giving a kind of operational analysis to the concept of simultaneity which contributed more to the present vogue for instrumentalism than anything else; but he later repented.
I trust that physicists will soon come to realize that the principle of complementarity is
ad hoc, and (what is more important) that its only function is to avoid criticism and to prevent the discussion of physical interpretations; though criticism and discussion are urgently needed for reforming any theory. They will then no longer believe that instrumentalism is forced upon them by the structure of contemporary physical theory.
Anyway, instrumentalism is, as I have tried to show, no more acceptable than essentialism. Nor is there any need to accept either of them, for there is a third view.
This 'third view' is not very startling or even surprising, I think. It preserves the Galilean doctrine that the scientist aims at a true description of the world, or of some of its aspects, and at true explanation of observable facts; and it combines this doctrine with the non-Galilean view that though this remains the aim of the scientist, he can never know for certain whether his findings are true, although he may sometimes establish with reasonable certainty that a theory is false.
One may formulate this 'third view' of scientific theories briefly by saying that they are
genuine conjectures - highly informative guesses about the world which although not verifiable (i.e. capable of being shown to be true) can be submitted to severe critical tests. They are serious attempts to discover the truth. In this respect scientific hypotheses are attempts to discover the truth. In this respect scientific hypotheses are exactly like Goldbach's famous conjecture in the theory of numbers. Goldbach thought that it might possibly be true; and it may well be true in fact, even though
we do not know and perhaps never know, whether it is true or not.
I shall confine myself to mentioning only a few aspects of my 'third view', and only such aspects as [to] distinguish it from essentialism and instrumentalism; and I shall take essentialism first.
Essentialism looks upon our ordinary world as mere appearance behind which it discovers the real world. This view has to be discarded once we become conscious of the fact that the world of each or our theories may be explained, in its turn, by further worlds which are described by further theories - theories of a higher level of abstraction, of universality, and of testability. The doctrine of an
essential or ultimate reality collapses together with that of ultimate explanation.
Since according to our third view the new scientific theories are, like the old ones, genuine conjectures, they are genuine attempts to describe these further worlds. Thus we are led to take all these worlds, including our ordinary world, as equally real; or better, perhaps, as equally real aspects of layers of the real world. (If looking through a microscope we change its magnification, then we may see various completely different aspects or layers of the same thing, all equally real.) It is thus mistaken to say that my piano, as I know it, is real, while its alleged molecules and atoms are mere 'logical constructions' (or whatever else may be indicative of their unreality); just as it is mistaken to say that atomic theory shows that the piano of my everyday world is an appearance only - a doctrine which is clearly unsatisfactory once we see that the atoms in their turn may perhaps be explained as disturbances, or structures of disturbances, in a quantized field of forces (or perhaps of probabilities). All these conjectures are equal in their claims to describe reality, although some of them are more conjectural than others.
Thus we shall not, for example, describe only the so-called 'primary qualities' of a body (such as its geometrical shape) as real, and contrast them as the essentialists once did, with its unreal and merely apparent 'secondary qualities' (such as colour). For the extension and even the shape of a body have since become
objects of explanation in terms of theories of a higher level; of theories describing a further and deeper layer of reality - forces, and fields of forces - which are related to the primary qualities in the same way as these were believed by the essentialists to be related to the secondary ones; and the secondary qualities, such as colours, are just as real as the primary ones - though our colour experiences have to be distinguished from the colour-properties of the physical things, exactly as our geometrical-shape-experiences have to be distinguished from the geometrical-shape-properties of the physical things. From our point of view both kinds of qualities are equally real - that is, conjectured to be real; and so are forces, and fields of forces, in spite of their undoubted hypothetical or conjectural character.
Although in one sense of the word 'real', all these various levels are equally real, there is another yet closely related sense in which we might say that the higher and more conjectural levels are equally real, there is another yet closely related sense in which we might say that the higher and more conjectural levels are he
more real ones - in spite of the fact that they are more conjectural. They are, according to our theories, more real (more stable in intention, more permanent) in the sense in which a table, or a tree, or a star, is more real than any of its aspects.
But it is not just this conjectural or hypothetical character of our theories the reason why we should not ascribe reality to the worlds described by them? Should we not (even if we find Berkeley's 'to be is to be perceived' too narrow)
call only those states of affairs 'real' which are described by true statements, rather than by conjectures which may turn out to be false? With these questions we turn to the discussion of the instrumentalist doctrine, which with its assertion that theories are mere instruments intends to deny the claim that anything like a real world is described by them.
I accept the view (implicit in the classical or correspondence theory of truth) that we should call a state of affairs 'real' if, and only if, the statement describing it is true. But it would be a grave mistake to conclude from this that the uncertainty of a theory, i.e. its hypothetical or conjectural character, diminishes in any was its implicit
claim to describe something real. For every statement
s is equivalent to a statement claiming that
s is true. And as to
s being a conjecture, we must remember that, first of all, a conjecture may be true, and thus describe a real state of affairs. Secondly, if it is false, then it contradicts some real state of affairs (described by its true negation). Moreover, if we test our conjecture, and succeed in falsifying it, we see very clearly that there was a reality - something with which it could clash.
Our falsifications thus indicated the points where we have touched reality, as it were. And out latest and best theory is always an attempt to incorporate all falsifications ever found in the field, by explaining them in the simplest way; and this means (as I have tried to show in
The Logic of Scientific Discovery, sections 31 to 46) in the most testable way.
Admittedly, if we do not know how to test a theory we may be doubtful whether there is anything at all of the kind (or level) described by it; and if we positively know that it cannot be tested, the our doubts will grow; we may suspect that it is a mere myth, or a fairytale. But if a theory is testable, then it implies that events of a certain kind cannot happen; and so it asserts something about reality. (This is why we demand that the more conjectural a theory is, the higher should be its degree of testability.) Testable conjectures or guesses, at any rate, are thus conjectures or guesses about reality; from their uncertain or conjectural character it only follows that our knowledge concerning the reality they describe is uncertain or conjectural. And although only that is certainly real which can be known with certainty, it is a mistake to think that only that is real which is known to be certainly real. We are not omniscient and, no doubt, much is real that is unknown to us all. It is thus indeed the old Berkeleian mistake (in the form 'to be is to be known') which still underlies instrumentalism.
Theories are our own inventions, our own ideas; they are not forced upon us, but are our self-made instruments of thought: this has been clearly seen by the idealist. But some of these theories of ours can clash with reality; and when they do, we know that there is a reality; that there is something to remind us of the fact that our ideas may be mistaken. And this is why the realist is right.
Thus I agree with essentialism in its view that
science is capable of real discoveries, and even in its view that in discovering new worlds our intellect triumphs over our sense experience. But I do not fall into the mistake of Parmenides - of denying reality to all that is colourful, varied, individual, indeterminate and indescribable in our world.
Since I believe that science can make real discoveries I take my stand with Galileo against instrumentalism. I admit that our discoveries are conjectural. But this is even true of geographical explorations. Columbu's conjectures as to what he had discovered were in fact mistaken; and Peary could only conjecture - on the basis of theories - that he had reached the Pole. But these elements of conjecture do not make their discoveries less real, or less significant.
There is an important distinction which we can make between two kinds of scientific prediction, and which instrumentalism cannot make; and distinction which is connected with the problem of scientific discovery. I have in mind the distinction between the prediction of
events of a kind which is known, such as eclipses and thunderstorms on the one hand and, on the other hand, the prediction of
new kinds of events (which the physicists call 'new effects') such as the prediction which led to the discovery of wireless waves, or of zero-point energy, or to the artificial building up of new elements not previously found in nature.
It seems to me clear that instrumentalism can account only for the first kind of prediction: if theories are instruments for prediction, then we must assume that their purpose must be determined in advance, as with other instruments. Predictions of the second kind can be fully understood only as discoveries.
It is my belief that our discoveries are guided by theory, in these as in most other cases, rather than the that theories are the result of discoveries 'due to observation'; for observation itself tends to be guided by theory. Even geographical discoveries (Columbus, Franklin, the two Nodernskjölds, Nansen, Wegener, and Heyerdahl's Kon-Tiki expedition) are often undertaken with the aim of testing a theory. Not to be content with offering predictions, but to create new situations for new kinds of tests: this is a function of theories which instrumentalism can hardly explain without surrendering its main tenets.
But perhaps the most interesting contrast between the 'third view' and instrumentalism arises in connection with the latter's denial of the descriptive function of abstract words, and of disposition-words. This doctrine, by the way, exhibits an essentialist strain within instrumentalism - the belief that events or occurrences or 'incidents' (which are directly observable) must be, in a sense, more real than dispositions (which are not).
The 'third view' of this matter is different. I hold that most observations are more or less indirect, and that it is doubtful whether the distinction between directly observable incidents and whatever is only indirectly observable leads us anywhere. I cannot but think that it is a mistake to denounce Newtonian forces (the 'causes of acceleration') as occult, and try to discard them (as has been suggested) in favour of accelerations. For accelerations cannot be observed any more directly than forces; and they are
just as dispositional: the statement that a body that a body's velocity is accelerated tells us that the body's velocity in the next second from now will exceed its present velocity.
In my opinion
all universals are dispositional. If 'breakable' is dispositional, so is 'broken', considering for example how a doctor decides whether a bone is broken or not. Nor should we call a glass 'broken' if the pieces would fuse the moment they were put together: the criterion of being broken is behaviour
under certain conditions. Similarly, 'red' is dispositional: a thing is red is it is able to reflect a certain kind of light - if it 'looks red' in certain situations. But even 'looking red' is dispositional. It describes the disposition of a thing to make onlookers agree that it looks red.
No doubt there are
degrees of dispositional character: 'able to conduct electricity' is dispositional in a higher degree than 'conducting electricity now' which is still very highly dispositional. These degrees correspond fairly closely to those of the conjectural or hypothetical character of theories. But there is no point in denying reality to dispositions, not even if we deny reality to all universals and to all states of affairs, including incidents, and confine ourselves to using that sense of the word 'real' which, from the point of view of ordinary usage, is the narrowest and safest: to call only physical bodies 'real', and only those which are neither to small nor too big nor too distant to be easily seen and handled.
For even then we should realize (as I wrote twenty years ago) that
'every description uses ... universals; every statement has the character of a theory, a hypothesis. The statement, ''here is a glass of water,'' cannot be (completely) verified by any sense-experience, because the universals which appear in it cannot be correlated with any particular sense-experience. (An ''immediate'' experience is
only once immediately given; it is unique.) By the word ''glass'', for example, we denote physical bodies which exhibit a certain
law-like behaviour; and the same holds of the word ''water''.'
I do not think that a language without universals could ever work; and the use of universals commits us to asserting, and thus (at least) to conjecturing, the reality of dispositions - though not of ultimate and inexplicable ones, that is, of essences. We may express all this by saying that the customary distinction between '
observational terms' (or '
non-theoretical terms') and 'theoretical terms' is mistaken, since all terms are theoretical to some degree, though some are more theoretical than others; just as we said that all theories are conjectural, though some are more conjectural than others.
But if we are commited, or at least prepared, to conjecture the reality of forces, and of fields of forces, then there is no reason why we should not conjecture that a die has a definite
propensity (or disposition) to fall on one or another of its sides; that this propensity can be changed by loading it; that propensities of this kind may change continuously; and that we may operate with fields of propensities, or entities which determine propensities. An interpretation of probability on these lines might allow us to give a new physical interpretation to quantum theory - one which differs from the purely statistical interpretation, due to Born, while agreeing with him that probability statements can be tested only statistically. And this interpretation may, perhaps, be of some little help in our efforts to resolve those grave and challenging difficulties in quantum theory which today seem to imperil the Galilean tradition."
This concludes my transcription of chapter three,
Three Views Concerning Human Knowledge, of Karl Popper's
Conjectures and Refutations. I conclude from this that the utility of a theory does not correlate negatively to the existence of truths herein, as some people might have (conveniently) inferred before.
Popper's
falsification and
C. Alexander's misfit share points without completely departing from their respective Deleuzian planes of immanence.